More Rules

 

Rule No. 17: Check Hope at the Door
Hope is emotion, pure and simple, and trading is not a game of emotion.  More

Rule No. 18: Be Flexible
Recognize and be open to the unexpected shifts in the market because business, by nature, is dynamic, not static.  More

Rule No. 19: When the Chiefs Retreat, So Should You
High-level executives don't quit a company for personal reasons, so that is a sign something is wrong. More

Rule No. 20: Giving Up on Value Is a Sin
If you don't have patience, think about letting someone who does run your money.  More

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www.lawadm.com

Dell After the Bell

Well you can short Dell tomorrow for a few points and see how far it slides. Basically, earnings sucked.

Cramer wants you in ESLR (Evergreen Solar) Do some research but he says this is gonna do better that Google. I have a hard time with that.

 

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www.lawadm.com

Valero's Net Soars; CEO to Step Down

Valero's Net Soars; CEO to Step Down: "Valero Energy reported its profit nearly doubled amid high oil-refining margins. William Greehey is stepping down as CEO but will remain chairman."

FCC Approves Two Telecom Deals

FCC Approves Two Telecom Deals: "The FCC approved the mergers of Verizon with MCI and SBC with AT&T, on the condition that both Verizon and SBC take steps to ensure open access to the Internet."

Microsoft's Net Income Rises 24%

Microsoft's Net Income Rises 24%: "Microsoft posted a 24% earnings increase on strong sales of software for server computers and said it will accelerate a plan to buy back $19 billion of its stock."

Chevron's Net Income Rises 12%

Chevron's Net Income Rises 12%: "Chevron's earnings rose 12% due to high energy prices and refinery margins, though hurricane damage restrained profits."

Stocks Rise on Strong GDP Data

Stocks Rise on Strong GDP Data: "The Dow industrials rallied 172.82 points, or 1.69%, to 10402.77 and the Nasdaq jumped 1.26%, capping a week of big swings in the market. Wall Street now awaits the Fed meeting next week."

U.S. Economy Marks Solid Growth

U.S. Economy Marks Solid Growth: "The U.S. economy grew at a 3.8% annual rate in the third quarter, confirming that the economy weathered the Gulf Coast hurricanes. Price inflation remained tempered."

More Rules from the mad man

Sorry we skipped a couple of days of this, but here are the rules:

 

Rule No. 13: No Woulda, Shoulda, Couldas
This damaging emotion is destructive to the positive mindset needed to make investment decisions.  More

Rule No. 14: Expect, Don't Fear Corrections
It is not always clear when a correction will strike, so expect and be prepared for one at all times.   More

Rule No. 15: Don't Forget Bonds
It's important to watch more than stocks, and bonds are stocks' direct competition.  More

Rule No. 16: Never Subsidize Losers With Winners
Any trader stuck in this position would do well to sell sinking stocks and wait a day. More

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www.lawadm.com

Google May Lose Gmail

Google could be forced to give up its Gmail brand across Europe after voluntarily dropping it in the UK following a trademark dispute with Independent International Investment Research (IIIR), the quoted financial information service. The dispute started 18 months ago when IIIR objected to Google's use of Gmail for its new free e-mail service because IIIR already had an e-mail service called G-mail. IIIR had the Gmail name valued at £25m and offered to settle the dispute for a payment below this level.

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www.lawadm.com

Have you seen this man?

Its that time again! Here are the rules for today! Enjoy

Rule No. 9: Defend Some Stocks, Not All
When trading gets tough, pick your favorite stocks and defend only those.  More

Rule No. 10: Bad Buys Won't Become Takeovers
Bad companies never get bids, so it's the good fundamentals you need to focus on.  More

Rule No. 11: Don't Own Too Many Names
It can be constraining, but it's better to have a few positions you know well and like.  More

Rule No. 12: Cash Is for Winners
If you don't like the market or have anything compelling to buy, it's never wrong to go with cash.   More

Southwest Airlines' Net Rises 91%

Unfreakinbelieveable!!! Southwest Airlines' Net Rises 91%: "Southwest's net rose 91% in the third quarter, boosted by $87 million in one-time gains and record passenger revenue."

Google's Profit Jumps Sevenfold

Google's Profit Jumps Sevenfold: "Google's net soared more than sevenfold in the third quarter as revenue roughly doubled, beating investor expectations and sending shares surging over 9% in after-hours trading. (Conference call transcript)"

GOOG to the MOON!!!

Looks like when I said all of the above they were thinking the same thing. Google is trading at around $333 in after hours trading up nearly 30 points. Which is around 10%.

Congrats to holders of this amazing stock.

 

More rules from the mad man

As promised here is four more of Cramer's investing rules for you to study.

Rule No. 5: Diversify to Control Risk
If you control the downside and diversify your holdings, the upside will take care of itself.  More

Rule No. 6: Do Your Stock Homework
Before you buy any stock, it's important to research all aspects of the company.  More

Rule No. 7: No One Made a Dime by Panicking
There will always be a better time to leave the table, so it is best to avoid the fleeing masses.  More

Rule No. 8: Buy Best-of-Breed Companies
Investing in the more expensive stock is invariably worth it because you get piece of mind.  More

you can see this blog daily and more info on http://dollarone.blogspot.com

 

Google Earnings Report

Today's is the day folks, so make sure you're free during the conference call so you can listen in and find out for yourself.

I find it fun to watch the "Last Trade" feature on Ameritrade streamer as I listen to the call.

Last time during the call Google Lost around 30 points. The general consensus was that Google is just not very good at presenting financial data which resulted in the quick drop (of 10%).

Maybe this time they have done better. Here is a highlight of things I can remember that have happened since the last call:

 

• Few new Google Features
• Start of Business in China
• Free Wifi deal with SF
• Some great new hires
• Second Offering of stock
• A small win over Microsoft
• A partnership with Sun
• few minor acquisitions

All of the above with the exception of second offering to me fall under the expense/liabilities column as far as income statement and balance sheet is concerned.

However if they can show they have cuts some of that cost down (world class chefs cooking for the employees ...) and they have increased their user base substantially AND they have put click fraud behind them AND they have had record earnings outweighing the expectations (which is actually possible this time) and only if all of the above is true then the stock has a chance of going up. Bottom line is, tomorrow, mid-day could be the best time to buy yourself some GOOG at a bargain price if the same losers decide to chicken out AGAIN.

 

Here's the call info (its in 1/2 hour sorry for the late notice but you can replay it later):

 

Event		Webcast Options*		Date / Time
Google Q3 2005 Earnings Conference Call		Microsoft Media Player Real Player		October 20, 2005 4:30 PM ET / 1:30 PM PT

 Replay information:

• Replay available from 7:30 PM ET, October 20 through midnight ET, November 3.
• Call 888-203-1112 from within the U.S. (719-457-0820 from outside the U.S.).
• Confirmation code: 7995844 (required for replay).

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www.lawadm.com

Have you seen this man?

If you have, you can blame him for all your recent losses. I know this past two weeks have been rough, but as Cramer would tell you you must be patient. Starting today I'll post Cramer's rules for investing. How does 4/day sound?

 

Rule No. 1: Bulls, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
It's essential for all traders to know when to take some off the table.  More

Rule No. 2: It's OK to Pay the Taxes
Stop fearing the tax man and start fearing the loss man because gains can be fleeting.  More

Rule No. 3: Don't Buy All at Once
To maximize your profits, stage your buys, work your orders and try to get the best price over time.  More

Rule No. 4: Buy Damaged Stocks, Not Damaged Companies
There are no refunds on Wall Street, so do your research and focus your trades on damaged stocks rather than companies.  More

On another note, I've been posting some entries to the blog (http://dollarone.blogspot.com) which I have not e-mailed to you. So I encourage you to visit the site for Market highlights update daily.

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www.lawadm.com

Cramer Longs Tech

Reports of the death of tech are completely overblown, said Cramer, who has been combing through transcripts of tech earnings calls. He he sees strong demand for enterprise systems, Internet, cell phones, video games, big-screen TVs and iPods.

In enterprise technology, both IBM (IBM:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take)and EMC ( EMC:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) are doing well. It's not a story of one company taking market share from the other, he said.

The Internet is very strong as evidenced by Yahoo!'s strong results. Computer chips through the perspective of Intel may not look that great, but when you look at that market through the Intel and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) together, it doesn't look that bad.

Cell-phone demand as measured by Motorola (MOT:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) earnings is strong. The "cell-phone market is hotter than I've ever seen," said Cramer. He would buy both Motorola and Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take), he said.

The video-game business is booming, said Cramer. He believes there will be Harry Potter-like hoopla for Microsoft's (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take) new Xbox.

I personally own QCOM and have owned it for a long time, its a great stock run by great management and has a great hold on its technology.

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www.lawadm.com

GOOG Worth $217/Share: Analyst

AnalystMorningstar has an interview with an analyst who sees Google primarily as an advertising company that should be valued on that basis.

So who's right? Someone who sees Google as an advertising-driven company and only sees that value as germane to the stock price? Or the crowd who see all the other things Google's doing, and have drunk at least a few sips of Upside Kool-Aid?

They're both right -- it just depends what actually happens. If Google can grow to dominate other markets, the stock today is worth what it is now, or much more. If not, it's worth $200, or $100 as the shine wears off. No one can know which is true, because the extent of Google's development of new products, the soundness of their strategies, the quality of those products, competitors' responses, and consumers' embrace of those yet-to-be-released products, are all unknown to us.

Me, I'd pay some attention to the contrarian simply because an awful lot of Google's eggs are in one basket revenue-wise, but so diversified resource-wise. In other words, Google has a lot of projects (and thus growing costs), but just one (very big, potentially vulnerable) revenue stream.

Working on so many different things, and shifting gears often, can carry with it significant costs. Google's investments in thousands of smart humans looks great until it reaches the point of unsustainability. Perhaps, then, the future of this currently-profitable company depends on how units are managed and held to account. And speaking of unknowns, we as outsiders have little idea of the extent to which claims about Google's culture of innovation are exaggerated. If it's always about solving the next problem, then it can be difficult to keep the eye on the ball to continue dealing with mundane everyday operational (already solved) problems. But it's quite possible that this is something of a fiction and that internally, mundane problems also receive considerable attention. It's quite possible that a company where the CEO muses about not wanting to solve already-solved problems, and where a chef plays a starring role in a quarterly earnings announcement, is actually just playing possum, secretly working with more traditional management paradigms, as well.

You'd think.
By Andrew Goodman

Google Looking To Do Real Estate Listings On Google Maps?

Good Morning Silicon Valley points to Google Earth digs deeper at the San Jose Mercury News which covers Google talking with CoStar, apparently the biggest commercial real estate data provider, to put real estate data on Google Maps. Kind of a no brainer that Google should do so on this one. After all, places like Oneonemap and HousingMaps are great for how they blend housing listings with maps. But most people don't know about them. They'd rightly expect that Google and gang ought to be offering such mashups themselves.

It also demonstrates what I told a journalist recently about APIs not perhaps being as altrustic as they seem. Give the world an API to your service, and it's a nice way to let everyone develop new ideas that you might later decide to do yourself, if they seem successful. It's like Google's 20 percent time on steroids, because non-Google developers still end up doing work for you.

Postscript from Gary: Yahoo Real Estate allows you to map apartment rentals onto Yahoo Maps. Simply click the "Map It" button.

Housing Starts Climb 3.4%

Housing Starts Climb 3.4%: "Housing starts increased 3.4% in September after back-to-back declines in the previous two months. Building permits, an indicator of future activity, rose 2.4%. (Full report)"

IBM's Profit Slips 2.5%

IBM's Profit Slips 2.5%: "IBM's profit slipped 2.5% in the third quarter as revenue declined 7.8% amid the divestiture of Big Blue's PC unit and modest growth for its consulting services."

Google U-Turn

For those of you looking for a good entry point into GOOG, this might just be your week. GOOG has just release a couple of new things this week among which is one of my favorites of theirs yet http://reader.google.com its self explanatory so if you're interested figure it out.

But the best reason to be buying Google this time around is earnings. This is the quarter that everyone is guessing earnings are going to be low, but all the normal indicators are pointing at record earnings again. In addition to that, the Google and Sun partnership is going to really put the squeeze on Mr. Softy. The feature of this partnership can point at nothing but Google Office to compete directly with Microsoft office at least as far as home users go. Imagine being able to access not only your documents from any PC but to be able to access the programs from anywhere as well. Well anyway, this is for the most part speculation but the price has been getting softer and softer and I would say $290 is is fantastic price for GOOG.

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www.lawadm.com

Best Cure For Depression

... is a great day in the market after that blood bath of a week.

Now folks if you've been hurt in this past week I think we're going to be fine.

There was a lot of involved in why the markte had that crappy few days.

And if you allow me to speculate:

• Option Expirations
• Announcement of increase in reserves of Natural gas to combat winter demand
• This week was also Roshashanah which I believe kept people of Jewish faith from trading in the market.

 

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www.lawadm.com

Too oily

Cramer loves the GOOG and he believes in a much higher target price. I am gonna try to pick some up and ride it to $400.

There's also talk of some move in CCI - Crown Castle owns and leases cell-phone towers. But, the company also has a key technology in the coming "sea change" of live video over cell phones.

Pretty Bullish on Koor Industries (KOR:NYSE ADR), the largest Israeli conglomerate, after recent news that Kuwait may end its decades-long embargo against Israel.

Google (GOOG:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) received a "big number bump" last night, The increase in earnings estimates by analyst Anthony Noto were so big that the $350 price target for Google is now conservative.

 

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www.lawadm.com

Mad Money Challenge

The callenge Starts Tomorrow. Sign up and play with me.

You basically get fake money to trade with and the winner talks live with Cramer. Wooooo

http://madmoneychallenge.com/registration.asp?menu=register

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www.lawadm.com

This is why you should diversify

Its a great day to be buying though! I am.

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www.lawadm.com

How am I doing?

Do you ask yourself everyday how is my portfolio doing? You need to get a life. But I hope this helps you.
In order to tell how a company is doing, you need to know how fast a company is growing, which is measured by revenue growth (sometimes called sales growth), and how profitable a company is, which is measured by earnings.

 

Know which industry-specific metric is important to be able to judge a company.

• For a cable company, the key metric is enterprise value (market cap plus debt) divided by the number of subscribers.
• For a hotel, the key metric is average revenue per room.
• For airlines, it's average revenue per seat.
• For retailers and restaurants, the key metric is same-store sales.
• For tech stocks, it's gross margin per product sold.
• For financial stocks, it's net interest margin, i.e., how much money was made on each dollar the financial institution had in assets.

Once you know the key metric, compare it with the company's peers. The retailer with the best same-store sales, for example, is the one you want to own. Similarly, you want to own the tech stock with the best gross margin, he said.

Let me know if you want to be removed from this list.

Remember you can visit us at http://dollarone.blogspot.com

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www.lawadm.com

Q4 looks SIRIUS-ly bright

Bear Stearns maintained an "outperform" rating on Sirius Satellite Radio (nasdaq: SIRI - news - people ) after the satellite radio provider announced third-quarter net subscribers of 359,000, a 97% rise from the year-ago period

The company ended the quarter with more than 2.17 million subscribers, according to a Sirius release. Bear Stearns said as of Sept. 15, Sirius had 262,000 net added subscribers for the quarter, a daily run rate of 3,400, but accelerated the run rate to 6,500 in the back half of the month.

The research firm reiterated a price target of $9 on the stock

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www.lawadm.com

Penny are made out of what?

Copper. BUY it!! But in the form of

PCU  SOUTHERN PERU COPPER CORP COM

I mentioned NBR (NABERS) before, the largest oil dudes in Saudi and Yemen. So what are you waiting for? This thing has been dropping and waiting for you to buy. I am gonna buy it in the morning.

 

In case you don't remember you can read these messages on my daily updated blog at http://dollarone.blogspot.com spread the word kids.

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www.lawadm.com

You wanna PLAY buy you don't wanna lose

Well Cramer's got the word for you.

PLAY - These guys make the audio chips for the iPod and iPod Nano. They'll also make the chip for the iPod video. So he believe these guys will come out ahead. But I have to be honest with you, I don't like these smaller tech companies cause I have worked for some of them and I know how poor management can be really risky. I'd say if you're gonna buy this stock, wait a couple of days for it to pull back, also find out when the earnings are announced and do the usual research.

 

FWLT - This a oil engineering construction play that was sued and took a huge hit a long time ago on asbestos. Now the have power generation and biotech plants as well. Its up 240% but even now its considered cheap. Honestly though I don't know why these guys are up so much. A quick look at the financials tells me that they've been losing 7-8 dollars a share over the past year. They don't pay dividends and they only have a 10% margin. But they have what wall street likes. Say it with me, GROWTH potential. I am gonna be a buyer of this stock around 29, I might regret not buying it here when it hits $50.

 

For those of you waiting for SWN to make a pull back so you can do a mon back you might be in luck tomorrow, there's gonna be some profit taking so if it pulls back 3 points I would say its party time.

 

 

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www.lawadm.com

More on SWN

This is going to be an amazing company, although I think most of you may have missed the boat. But peep this article from MarketWatch:

 

"Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN) said that it will publicly offer 7.3 million shares under its existing shelf registration statement. The Houston-based natural gas company said it will use the proceeds to pay down debt and to fund increases in its capital budget. Southwestern will raise its capital budget by $60.7 million, to $499.5 million, with the new funds targeted for the company's exploration and production business. Southwestern raised its 2005 production forecast to 62 billion cubic feet equivalent to 64 Bcfe from its earlier estimate of 61 Bcfe to 63 Bcfe."

 

Nice way to get dept free and multiply your budget by a factor of 8.

 

BTW, there are two more hurricanes on the way. I am gonna invest in ponchos :)

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www.lawadm.com

SWN

I recomended SWN to you last week. Did you buy it? You owe me 20 points if you did.